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Home » How Sizzling IPO Toast Helps Eating places Go Digital

How Sizzling IPO Toast Helps Eating places Go Digital

Hear in to this episode of Trade Focus: Tech for a breakdown of how Toast (NYSE: TOST) has grown from a humble, point-of-sales resolution into a sturdy providing aimed toward making life simpler for restaurateurs, employees, and prospects.



How Hot IPO Toast Helps Restaurants Go Digital


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How Sizzling IPO Toast Helps Eating places Go Digital

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Brian Feroldi owns shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill, HubSpot, Sq., and Starbucks. Dylan Lewis owns shares of Olo Inc. and Sq.. The Motley Idiot owns shares of and recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill, HubSpot, Lightspeed POS Inc., Olo Inc., Sq., and Starbucks. The Motley Idiot recommends Shift4 Funds, Inc. and recommends the next choices: quick October 2021 $120 calls on Starbucks. The Motley Idiot has a disclosure coverage.

This video was recorded on September 17, 2021.

Dylan Lewis: It is Friday September seventeenth and we’re speaking about Toast. I am your host Dylan Lewis, I am joined by idiot.com’s tippity-top tea toddler of great treasure troves, Brian Feroldi. Brian, how’s it going?

Brian Feroldi: Dylan, inform me should you’ve heard this one earlier than. We’ll dig by an S-1 at present and it is a tech firm.

Lewis: I do know. Listeners at this level are like, “Are you guys ever going to speak about earnings?” We simply hit so many of those views, there have been so many attention-grabbing corporations which have come public. This enterprise we’ll be speaking about at present, Toast, quickly to be public most likely sooner or later later this month. I’ve to say Brian, earlier than we get into the breakdown of the corporate, acquired to offer a shout out to one in every of our listeners. We’re speaking about Toast at present as a result of Daniel Rodin stated, “Have an interest to listen to concerning the Toast IPO, it appears like a compelling trade with actual development potential. Love the present.” I feel simply to kick issues off, Brian, let’s speak a little bit bit about who this firm is and what they do.

Feroldi: I’ve by no means heard of Toast previous to me studying by the IPO, however apparently they’re an enormous deal within the restaurant trade. First, a little bit background concerning the IPO itself. We nonetheless haven’t got all the main points but, so the day we’re going off of is the latest S-1A. The corporate is trying to come public someplace between $30-33. Though as we have seen earlier than, that worth may transfer. In the event that they hit $33, it seems like they’re going to increase about $800 million and the valuation of this firm can be $15 billion. This can be a massive software program firm that I might by no means heard of.

Lewis: Yeah, it is undoubtedly in that class for me, I used to be shocked on the sticker worth of the valuation that was being turnaround given previous to the e-mail about this enterprise hadn’t adopted it a lot. However tremendous attention-grabbing as a result of it is a firm, Brian, that performs in an area just like a inventory that you simply and I actually like, and that is Olo, we have talked about that on the present earlier than. Very completely different enterprise, very completely different monetary make-up. However at core, it is a enterprise that’s bringing expertise to eating places. That has been a really compelling story, particularly during the last two years.

Feroldi: What has occurred to the restaurant trade during the last two years is nothing in need of seismic. What the adjustments have gone within the restaurant trade have actually been an enormous tailwind for Toast. Let’s begin shortly with simply the mission of the corporate. First off, they’ve mission they usually market it proper upfront. Toast’s mission is to empower the restaurant neighborhood, to please their friends, do what they love and thrive. I like it.

Lewis: Yeah, it is simple. It tells you precisely what it’s worthwhile to know. In case you watch any speeches given by their CEO, Chris Comparato. Very stakeholder-oriented in how he goes about explaining what Toast does. There’s a multi-stakeholder strategy right here, the place they’re trying on the restaurateurs, they’re trying on the staff, they’re trying on the finish prospects. Actually it’s worthwhile to examine each single field, it’s worthwhile to inform everyone to search out one thing that actually works within the trade.

Feroldi: We have talked about Olo earlier than on the present. As you have thought, we’re each shareholders. Olo is brief for on-line ordering, and that provides you a way of what that firm is concentrated on. Toast actually focuses on mainly each different factor {that a} restaurant may presumably want. Fast background on the restaurant trade. Most individuals have been to a restaurant they usually notice eating places are advanced organizations to run. There are customized meals orders on a regular basis, the menus are consistently altering. On the identical time, meals is perishable and the trade has excessive turnover and excessive failure charge combined with low margins. If you mix COVID on prime of that and the truth that customers are demanding on-line ordering, cellular ordering, fee on the terminals and supply is a big process for these eating places to maintain up with the altering instances.

Lewis: Brian, I feel simply to underscore that for a second, should you take heed to the Tuesday present, the Client Items present, they get into retail and eating places. The companies which have thrived during the last 5 years have been chains which have made heavy investments in cellular and buyer rewards applications. The Chipotles of the world, the Starbucks‘ of the world. I feel it is confirmed during the last couple years to be troublesome even from very giant organizations to nail that. Think about being a smaller enterprise, possibly a regional chain or a mother and pop store. It is close to unattainable to do this by yourself. You actually need another person to be bringing that stuff in for you.

Feroldi: Yeah, simply take into consideration all of the capabilities {that a} restaurant proprietor wants to think about to service their prospects and their staff. They’re simply taking the funds, accumulating the orders, there’s advertising, there’s recruiting, there’s payroll. Once more, there’s coping with cellular orders. That is loads happening. Traditionally, eating places have taken care of every of these capabilities, both by handbook processes or by shopping for just a few completely different particular software program packages. Toast acquired its begin by offering eating places with level of sale options, however they’ve now expanded considerably to supply mainly any software program device {that a} restaurant may wish. They provide level of sale, fee, payer processing, present playing cards, loyalties. They can assist with stock, with kiosks, menu administration, and on-line ordering. Extra lately they have back-office processes, payroll, advertising, recruiting and even capital, so Toast platform actually handles every little thing {that a} restaurant wants.

Lewis: I wish to take that vast venue of options that you simply simply laid on the market and tie it to 4 figures that had been thrown on the market in a keynote that Toast CEO gave just a few years in the past. I feel he does an excellent job of portray an issue or the issue within the restaurant trade with a few numbers right here. The primary one is 5%, and that’s the typical gross margin for a restaurant. We talked a couple of ton of companies on the present, Brian. 5% is certainly on the decrease finish of gross margins for specialty for the tech present, however simply typically that’s not some huge cash left over to go round and both spend money on your online business, develop, or do no matter it’s that you simply’d wish to do. You are operating on tight margins to start with. 73%, the second quantity is the turnover within the trade on the staffing facet. Three out of 4 staff depart inside a yr. Third quantity, 17%, failure charge for eating places within the first yr after which one in 12, the roles within the U.S. which might be within the restaurant trade. If you put all that collectively, you have got brutal economics. You could have a excessive turnover trade, each within the staff, but additionally within the eating places themselves. The success charge, particularly multiyear success charge is just not significantly excessive and it’s a very giant a part of the US financial system that I feel captures why tech-first options, particularly issues that improved the fee pace the staff may get the advantages that they may get, the entry to capital for restaurateurs, something that helps get at that’s going to be tremendous compelling for individuals on this trade.

Feroldi: These numbers you simply all through are actually essential. As a reminder, these are numbers in good instances. These numbers get far worse while you throw in a pandemic on prime of that. To say nothing of the labor shortages that we have seen basically throughout america, eating places are hurting proper now they usually’ve been hurting for 2 years. Firms like Toast are actually wanted to assist these eating places compete.

Lewis: Let’s dive in a little bit bit to the Toast particular numbers right here. Brian, we threw out a reasonably gaudy potential valuation for this enterprise. $15+ billion, I feel $16.5 billion, possibly $17 billion, relying on the place that IPO winds up pricing. I am certain our listeners are questioning, “Okay. Effectively, how massive is that this factor?” What is the scale of this firm that we’re right here?

Feroldi: The headline numbers from the corporate look fairly good. The corporate as of the latest quarter, so that is June thirtieth, 2021. The corporate reviews mainly half $1 billion in annualized recurring income. That determine was up 118% over the prior yr. As for the purchasers themselves, that is the highest canine and prime canine on this area. They’ve 29,000 particular person prospects and their software program is utilized in greater than 48,000 places. A number of the massive prospects that you simply might need heard of are Jamba Juice, Melting Pot, D’Angelo’s and Papa Gino’s. Now, it is a funds first resolution, that is the place the corporate actually acquired its begin and targeted on. As of the final yr, they’ve accomplished $38 billion in gross fee quantity. However in addition they provide a Software program-as-a-Service enterprise on prime of that. Some numbers for that may be there web recurring income charge just like the dollar-based web income retention charge that we all know and love, that determine has constantly exceeded 110%. Some spectacular numbers proper out the gate.

Lewis: Brian, I at all times attempt to equate companies that I am not as related with to different companies, to only be capable of get myself a little bit little bit of understanding for a way they’ve developed over time, what the roadmap has seemed like. After I was Toast, I could not assist however assume mainly Sq. for eating places with how they’ve launched their merchandise additional time and the way they’ve expanded. It began as a degree of sale. Mainly, as soon as you’re there as the one that’s facilitating funds, you have got a lot optionality in all the different issues that you simply’re capable of hop into. We have seen that within the timeline for what they’ve laid out for his or her prospects with each extra yr that they have been in enterprise, over 10 years at this level.

Feroldi: I feel that is an ideal comparability. Actually, Sq. is one in every of their main rivals. However yeah, such as you stated, the corporate did get its begin in monetary expertise and funds. Even at present, that’s the lion’s share of this firm’s income. As of the primary six months of 2021, monetary expertise options, as they name it, have made up 78% of complete gross sales and that determine grew 121%. Offsetting that’s the truth that that could be a fairly low-margin enterprise for this firm. Their second main income is subscription providers, and that is their SaaS merchandise, and that features their point-of-sales, software program, kitchen show programs, invoicing programs, digital ordering and supply, advertising, loyalty, and so on. That enterprise can also be rising fairly shortly, 52% as of the primary half of 2021, however that’s solely 15% of gross sales. That issues as a result of that’s the highest margin product that this firm provides. Two different income segments for this firm embody {hardware}, which is the point-of-sale programs themselves, terminals, tablets, handhelds, and so on. That is about 6% of income and can also be an expert providers part for set up of those merchandise, that’s about 2% of income. Now that is essential to know as a result of whereas {hardware} skilled providers aren’t that massive of a income line, they carry unfavorable gross margins. You possibly can add all that collectively. This can be a fairly low-margin enterprise.

Lewis: I feel it is tremendous attention-grabbing as a result of this firm now most likely seems loads completely different in 5 years if every little thing goes the best way that they need it to. I am fintech {hardware} {and professional} providers and saying, that’s the entryway for them to ascertain relationships with eating places. The long-term factor to be tremendous enthusiastic about might be the subscription providers facet of their enterprise, it is a lot larger margin. Nevertheless it’s actually arduous Brian to get any income on the subscription providers facet with out first establishing himself with eating places, the {hardware} needs to be there for level of sale sort functions. In fact, the transactions must be there. So that you want fintech options. However simply what they have been capable of do during the last 10 years, it wasn’t till 2019 that they began rolling out payroll and group administration, advertising, and capital providers. These are the issues that make you, one, a lot stickier for the eating places that you simply service, however two, additionally your financials are most likely going to look loads higher as a result of that begins to get extra into the subscription providers that we all know are simply going to be extra useful for the corporate’s backside line.

Feroldi: Completely. That is simply the character of the best way that this enterprise got here time-to-market. Once more, they initially targeted on the monetary expertise half, the point-of-sale programs. Such as you stated, when you get that that is the sphere that will get them within the door, and over time, they’ve progressively been capable of construct out a full suite of providers. We have seen their gross margin improve during the last yr and I feel there’s ample motive to consider that it continued to take action, particularly as that subscription service continues to take up a bigger and bigger portion of the whole. Nevertheless it’s nonetheless price noting that proper now it is a low-margin enterprise.

Lewis: Yeah. Entering into the financials right here for the full-year 2020, over $800 million in income up 23% year-over-year. We went into the sources there and gave the breakdown, gross margin while you put all of it collectively, 17%, which was up double from fiscal yr 2019. In fact, working losses as we would count on for an organization within the stage, over $200 million and a web lack of about $250 million for the complete yr. What’s fascinating, Brian, about this enterprise is, I simply laid out the complete yr 2020. In case you take a look at the primary half of 2021 for this enterprise, radically completely different development story and already dramatically bettering financials.

Feroldi: That is sensible. The primary half of 2020 acquired terrible for the restaurant enterprise. Whereas this firm was profitable an enormous quantity of recent enterprise for itself and being put in in all places, its prospects had been hurting, so it needed to provide very versatile fee phrases. There additionally wasn’t lots of funds flowing by its community. It is sensible that its one-year financials look a bit wonky, however the numbers for the primary half of 2021 look significantly better. Income was up by greater than double. Gross margin expanded to 22%. Whereas they’re spending very closely on gross sales and advertising, on R&D, and on overhead prices, these prices are way more manageable now. They did report a web lack of $56 million. That doesn’t excite me as an investor. However should you click on into that extra, the corporate truly produced optimistic free money movement of $39 million over that very same time interval. This can be a case research. There’s going to be one more case research of the distinction between web revenue and free money movement.

Lewis: Yeah. It is one of many everlasting debates, proper, Brian?

Feroldi: I am going to take free money movement each single time. So this firm has one.

Lewis: Yeah. I feel it is a traditional enterprise the place the year-over-year numbers are simply going to look bizarre. It is sure to occur and a part of eager to see an organization come public and get a few quarters of outcomes, particularly one which operates within the restaurant trade, is simply seeing how these issues normalize over time. I feel we’ll most likely within the second half of 2021 begin to see them hitting extra normal comps. I do know at one level early on within the pandemic toast needed to lay off, I feel it was about half of their staff on account of lots of the headwinds within the restaurant trade and every little thing that was taking place with the pandemic. One factor to bear in mind, simply with this firm is we’ve got some sense of what the expansion charges are. Do not count on them to be within the triple-digit year-over-year ballpark. I feel they’ll be a little bit bit nearer the place they have been traditionally, though that is the kind of enterprise that may discover accelerating development. One factor I feel that’s tremendous reassuring to me, Brian, is trying on the stability sheet. Loads of protection right here with money. As of year-end 2020, long-term debt of nearly $170 million is over $580 million in money on the stability sheet, and primarily based on what we’re seeing with the IPO, I feel there’s going to be much more money there, at any time when they go public.

Feroldi: They’re anticipating to have over one billion {dollars} in money on their stability sheet after they go public, and there are some convertible notes on there and different issues which might be going to be worn out. This firm may have loads of monetary flexibility to afford losses if it needs to maneuver ahead. That is good to see.

Lewis: Yeah. Whilst you and I weren’t as conversant in this firm previous to doing the present, I feel it appears to be the chief within the area. I feel individuals within the restaurant trade, particularly people which might be tech ahead on this trade, have adopted this firm for some time. I do know it is a part of the very blossoming tech scene in Boston. Is it truthful to say prime canine, like best-in-class for the trade, Brian?

Feroldi: Yeah, I might say that that could be a truthful evaluation to make regardless of the variety of eating places that they’ve, the variety of particular person restaurant prospects that they’ve, after which they get nice critiques from not solely their prospects but additionally from third-parties, saying that they’re the fastest-growing accomplished, the largest suite. So, I feel it is utterly truthful to say that their trade is prime canine.

Lewis: We see lots of different encouraging indicators. I feel we wish to know that particularly in a extra nascent area that we’re investing in among the best-in-class companies. We have now fairly good social proof of that between what we’re getting by way of buyer critiques, what we’re seeing by way of the relationships they’ve, and likewise simply the dimensions of the integrations with that, Brian.

Feroldi: Yeah, it is a firm that has over 70 restaurant integrations constructed proper into it that makes its product much more interesting to potential prospects. A number of the ones you have most likely heard of, they’ve integrations immediately with DoorDash, with GrubHub, with Olo, and with OpenTable. It actually looks like it is a full suite platform. When you get began on it, you are going to keep it up for a very long time.

Lewis: In fact, if we’re moving into something within the subscription area, one of many best issues we will take a look at and say, our individuals delighted is that annual web retention quantity 110% lately, which is stable, and we have seen that monitor over time trending down a little bit bit, one thing to regulate.

Feroldi: Yeah, it is an OK quantity. I might say, however I feel that is simply the character of the enterprise that this firm is in. Have in mind, they’re serving eating places within the step previous to COVID, was that about, what was it? 19% of eating places fail in any given yr. The corporate doesn’t particularly name out its churn charge, however I feel it is truthful to say that buyers are going to should count on a reasonably excessive churn charge, once more, simply given the character of the enterprise. That web income retention charge of 110%, 115%, I might say that that is fairly good given the purchasers at this server and what buyers can count on shifting ahead.

Lewis: Sure, that is an ideal level. They might delight their prospects, be implausible companions. If the corporate goes out of enterprise, it is nonetheless going to mirror as a misplaced account on their financials and there is not loads you are able to do about that in a excessive churn trade like a restaurant factor.

Feroldi: Yeah. Jogs my memory about HubSpot, you simply have to consider the purchasers that it served. HubSpot has by no means had a dollar-based web income retention charge over 100% or hovers proper round there. In absolute phrases, that sounds horrible, however while you assume that they serve lots of prospects that exit of enterprise in that context, it is fairly good.

Lewis: Yeah. I feel it is a traditional no scarcity of alternative right here, sort enterprise. Brian, we talked about it is a best-in-class and chief within the trade. One in 12 jobs within the U.S. financial system being restaurant jobs. There’s a lot to love right here by way of the potential and actually the massive greenfield in entrance of this enterprise.

Feroldi: The corporate calls out that within the U.S. alone, there are greater than 860,000 eating places places individually. That offers the corporate roughly a 6% market share. In case you look on a greenback foundation although, the corporate believes that it is annualized recurring income potential within the U.S. is about $15 billion, and it believes that it has about 3% of the market share there. However this firm isn’t just a US story, or at the least it hopes to be not only a U.S. story shifting ahead. They do name out that they do plan on getting into worldwide markets. If they might accomplish that efficiently, the numbers simply explode. The corporate stated that there are 22 million restaurant allocations globally and that they generate greater than $2.6 trillion in annualized gross sales. I might say their alternative within the U.S. is massive however the actual alternative of this enterprise is worldwide enlargement.

Lewis: Yeah. In case you’re attempting to think about the way to make sense of that by way of the way to appropriately low cost that as an investor, I might say that is killer optionality. I am not baking it into what this firm turns into within the subsequent three years. It is good to know that that is there for them, nevertheless it’s not going to be the core motive why I might be a purchaser of this enterprise if I’m a purchaser of this enterprise.

Feroldi: Yeah. I agree with that. If the corporate already had gross sales in worldwide markets and that was already like, say, 5% or 10% of the whole, and we noticed clear indicators that they had been succeeding in worldwide markets. That is one factor, however we do not see any of that so far. That may be a nice-to-have may increase the pie down the highway, however such as you, I am not giving them any credit score for that at present.

Lewis: I discussed CEO Chris Comparato earlier than. He isn’t the founder, however he has been with the corporate for almost half of its working historical past at this level. administration tradition, Brian, there is a first rate quantity of inside possession right here. This can be a administration group the place if you will turn into a shareholder, you are mainly giving them the facility to do what they wish to do with that enterprise. That is the best way the voting construction is ready up.

Feroldi: Whereas they solely management insiders. First half, let’s speak concerning the firm. The CEO, Chris Comparato, as you talked about, joined the corporate in 2015. In regards to the three co-founders of this enterprise are all nonetheless concerned. They at present occupy the roles of President, COO, and CTO, they usually have a dual-class share construction, which we have seen many instances. Whereas insiders as a gaggle, solely personal about 15% of the enterprise. On a voting foundation, they personal 99% of the voting energy. What they are saying goes.

Lewis: Altogether, I feel it is not at all times a foul factor to see co-founders acknowledging that another person possibly ought to have taken the assistance of this enterprise. I do not understand how you course of that as an investor, Brian. There are lots of nice tales of founder-led companies which have turn into fantastic compounders. There are additionally nice tales of companies and administration groups which have recognized, it is truly time for another person to run the present right here.

Feroldi: Yeah, I am completely positive with that. There are individuals on the market which might be actually good at beginning companies and are actually good at operating them once they’re lower than 50 or 100 staff. However when you get to a sure measurement of scale, a completely completely different set of skill-sets is required to take an organization to the following stage. I actually prefer it when the founders begin an organization after which proceed to be there as a result of it is their soul within the recreation. They’re those that basically wish to assume long-term. I am positive with this. I just like the introspection of the founders of the corporate saying, we won’t take this firm the place it must be, let’s go and rent someone.

Lewis: We have now talked about a few completely different companies and even simply discussing this firm, Brian, Sq. was the best means for us to supply a parallel for individuals and assist them wrap their head round this enterprise. We additionally talked about Olo, an organization that we’re each shareholders in. I feel the competitors right here is mostly going to be these extra full suite options that take a complete take a look at the enterprise quite than a particular aspect of the restaurant trade, which is what all it does.

Feroldi: Yeah, that is going to be the No. 1 threat I feel for buyers right here, is simply the massive quantity of competitors. Within the fee area, we talked about Sq.. There’s additionally different corporations like TouchBistro, Clover Well being, Lightspeed, POS, and so on. On the back-office facet they’re competing towards corporations like Oracle Micros, NCR, PAR Applied sciences. There’s additionally Heartland Fee System, Shift4, Fiserv, and so on. There’s a enormous quantity of competitors within the area. To date the corporate has been capable of transcend that, win market share, and it is doing so as a result of it appears to have the largest suite of product choices, however make no mistake. These are some well-heeled rivals within the area and that is going to be one thing for buyers to look at.

Lewis: I feel placing this all collectively, I actually like the best way that they’ve gone to market and the best way that they’ve expanded their choices additional time. It creates an answer that is very apparent to individuals which might be within the restaurant trade simply primarily based on the dimensions of what they’re capable of do. There are some industries the place, Brian, it is sensible to go together with one thing that is barely extra specialised and tailor-made to what you do quite than a sq. that may try this. However does it for retail typically. I feel there’s one thing actually good there. I’m a watcher of this inventory because it comes public. I’ll say, I feel there’s something compelling right here and price listening to. Notably if we see the subscription facet of this enterprise develop as a result of it may have a dramatic impact on what the corporate financials seem like.

Feroldi: Yeah. I say, I am proper there with you. After I was operating for this, there’s nothing that jumped out of me like, I wish to personal this on day one. However they clearly constructed a stable enterprise right here. It is rising quick. The platform may be very sticky out of the highest canine and the area. The founders are nonetheless concerned. It is mission-driven, free money movement optimistic. It is stability sheet can be fairly good and its prospects actually appear to love it. Offsetting these positives is the truth that it is a low-margin enterprise. I actually do not know what normalized development ranges for this firm seem like as a result of the numbers we’re seeing have COVID throughout them. I do not know what the long-term dilution charge is. My intestine really feel is it may be fairly excessive, and whereas there’s a massive alternative within the U.S, they’ve truly already captured a reasonably sizable portion of it. It is not like this firm can triple its income and nonetheless be 1% of the present market alternative. That signifies that the worldwide story is basically going to should repay for buyers right here, and we’ve got gotten no indicators thus far that this idea interprets internationally, in order that’s an enormous threat for buyers to look at.

Lewis: I feel you nailed it, Brian. I do not know that I can sum it up any higher than you simply did. We have now I feel efficiently gone by a complete episode with out making up, and so I’ll finish with one right here. I toast you in your unimaginable evaluation and the enjoyable that you simply convey to the present, each single week.

Feroldi: Toast to you, Dylan, for a beautiful weekend.

Lewis: Brian, thanks a lot for becoming a member of me.

Feroldi: Anytime, Dylan.

Lewis: That is going to do it for this episode of Trade Focus. When you’ve got any questions otherwise you wish to attain out and say “Hey,” shoot us an electronic mail at industryfocus.idiot.com, or tweet us, @MFIndustryFocus. On the lookout for extra of our stuff, subscribe on iTunes, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. As at all times, individuals on this system might personal corporations mentioned on the present and The Motley Idiot might have formal suggestions for or towards shares talked about, so do not buy or promote something primarily based solely on what you hear. Because of Tim Sparks for his work behind the glass at present, and thanks for listening. Till subsequent time, Idiot on.

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